KENYA MORANS VS FIBA AFROBASKET GROUP B – ANALYTICS DEEP DIVE

Kenya Forward Ronald Gombe in action against Senegal. © http://www.fiba\basketball

The first window of the FIBA AfroBasket Qualifiers concluded on November 29^th in Kigali, Rwanda with the Kenya Morans finishing third in Group B play. The Morans lost their first two games to continental powerhouses Angola and Senegal before rallying to beat Mozambique in their third and final game. All four teams will face off again in Rwanda in February 2021 with the top three teams in the group automatically qualifying to the FIBA AfroBasket 2021.

Coming off a silver medal performance at the 2019 FIBA Afrocan in Mali, the Morans are hoping to reestablish their presence at the AfroBasket Championships after a two decade absence. In order to keep their AfroBasket hopes alive, the Morans will need to hold on to that 3^rd place standing in the group or improve upon it.

Kenya’s performance in Kigali was a mixed bag. There were some positive signs that the team is ascendant at the international level – Kenya climbed 18 spots to #115 in the FIBA Men’s world ranking in 2020. However, there were also some alarming signs that threaten to derail their continental aspirations if not quickly addressed.

I’m going to provide an analysis of the team’s performance in the 3 games relative to the other Group B opponents using basic and advanced stats. It is important to note that while statistics reveal certain things about a player or team, it is equally important to put things in their proper context and not rely solely on the stats. I will attempt to do both here – use the stats to tell a story.

Team	PPG	RPG	APG
Senegal	72.7	52.0	23.7
Angola	73.7	45.3	20.0
Kenya	66.3	48.7	16.0
Mozambique	57.7	44.0	16.7

Starting with the basic stats, Senegal and Angola dominated all three categories. Kenya was about average while Mozambique struggled in all three. The Morans had to contend with Senegal’s size and depth while going up against Angola’s deep continental experience.

Team	PPG Scored	PPG Allowed	Point Differential
Senegal	72.7	52.7	20.0
Angola	73.7	63.3	10.4
Kenya	66.3	79.0	-12.7
Mozambique	57.7	75.3	-17.6

Point Differential

The point differential confirms Senegal’s dominance on both ends while Mozambique struggled to both score and defend with proficiency. The Moran’s point differential would have looked a little better if not for the lopsided 92-54 loss to Senegal. To be a legitimate threat at the continental level, you have to score and defend at high levels.

One anomaly outside of this group is Egypt which averaged 95.3 points per game while giving up 78.3 point per game for a point differential of +17. Egypt scored so efficiently that they could allow 78 points per game while still winning by a comfortable margin.

There is an argument to be made that despite Kenya’s clunky offense, Angola and Senegal are only averaging about 6 more points per game. If the defenses are mostly equal, that is a two possession game that could be decided by late game execution giving them a chance.

However, Kenya’s defense was not up to par during this tournament. The Moran’s poor transition defense and floor balance resulted in several uncontested dunks and layups. They were frequently a step slow on defensive rotations to open wing shooters. Slow, telegraphed passing in the middle of the floor led to easy open court layups. Poor communication on screens and back cuts led to even more open shots and layups. The Moran’s defense will need considerable work if they want a shot at beating Senegal and Angola in February.

Rebounding

In the rebounding war, Senegal once again topped the group with 52 rebounds per game. More rebounds equal more scoring opportunities and subsequently fewer scoring opportunities for your opponent.

Kenya’s tenacious rebounding was a welcome surprise considering its tallest players is Ariel Okall Karanga who is listed at 6’9” (206cm) while Senegal boasts at least seven players listed at 6’9” or taller.

Kenya’s Ronald Gombe was the leading rebounder at the FIBA AfroBasket qualifiers with 10.7 rebounds per game. Unlike most leading rebounders who capitalize on defensive rebounds, Ronald rebounded at elite levels both defensively and offensively. Ronald finished in the top 2% of all players in both offensive and defensive rebounding. His rebounding style is predicated on excellent rebounding instincts for where the ball will bounce off the rim, working early to secure that prime rebounding position and holding it often against taller opponents.

Another surprise was Tylor Ongwae’s rebounding at the small forward position. He finished fourth overall with 9.7 rebounds per game. Some of this was a function of playing heavy minutes but for a wing player, Tylor’s rebounding stats indicate outstanding conditioning and determination since he often has to cover more ground to come in from the wing as opposed to paint-bound forwards and centers who are much closer to rebounding opportunities.

 An added benefit of Tylor’s rebounding is that he is able to initiate the transition offense immediately after the rebound and exploit the recovering defense instead of finding one of the guards to initiate and losing the transition advantage.

Assists

Senegalese point guard Clevin Hannah was top assist man at the FIBA Afrobasket qualifiers with 7.7 assists per game. Clevin and the Senegalese guards were able into get to the paint consistently and find open shooters & cutters and drop off to their big men for high percentage looks. Senegal places a high premium on moving the ball and making the defense react to multiple actions before the shot. Senegal had 33 assists against Kenya with Clevin accounting for nine assists. He repeatedly drove into the paint finding back cutting players or open shooters on the wings.

On the other hand, the Moran’s offense did not generate many high-quality assisted shots. Traditionally, the Morans have relied on a large percentage of their offense output resulting from transition opportunities against no set half-court defense. Kenya has quick open-floor guards, very mobile forwards like Ariell Okall Karanga and forwards like Tylor Ongwae who can rebound and initiate the fast break themselves. However, against teams that defend and rebound at high levels like Senegal and Angola, the Moran’s transition opportunities dwindled and they were forced to execute in the half-court against these set defenses. In the final game against Mozambique especially in the 2^nd half, the Morans rediscovered their transition game and scored 26 fast break points – the most they scored in all 3 games. Senegal held the Morans to just 10 fast break points.

In the next segment, I will look at individual player performances that caught my eye. If you have any questions or comments, ask in the comments section below or at the Facebook group page https://www.facebook.com/HoopsKenya/ and I will be sure to respond.